This chart will determine who is elected president in November.
Way back last year when I endorsed Mitt Romney, I put forth the idea that this election was going to be an economic election, not a social issue or a foreign policy election. We have had a diversity of views here on that subject and the best candidate to answer the call. The co-bloggers have all had different opinions, I started with Cain, thought about Newt and settled on Romney. Kells went for Ron Paul, Black3 to Santorum and Hockeydad was (is) a Newt guy.
I still think that this will be all about the economy. Obama is doing everything he can to avoid talking about it. It’s Sandra Fluke and the “war on women”, it is “but I got Bin Laden”, Romney was my buddy for designing MassCare but now is an extremist, composite girlfriends like the creepy Julia (which illustrates Obama’s belief in total statism) – pretty much anything except the economy.
His surrogates in the media are trying hard to cover his six. Mitt put his dog on the roof of his car nearly 40 years ago (even though Obama actually ATE dog meat), Ann Romney wears $900 blouses (even though Michelle wears $540 tennis shoes and $2,700 sweaters), anything to distract from the dire status of the economy.
The sycophants at MSNBC are spinning like a dradle. Of Obama’s visit to Afghanistan to sign an agreement to agree to talk at some point in the future and remind voters that he got Bin Laden in a military setting, Chris Matthews (host of Hardball) compared him to Henry V of England…while I agree that Obama thinks he is a king, the comparison stretches credulity. Henry V was actually a real warrior king who picked up a sword and led his men to victory against the French at the Battle of Agincourt .
Then Matthews outright lies about the President’s record on unemployment by claiming that April’s numbers are the lowest since Obama took office – they aren’t – but this regime and its enablers will do anything to distract from the chart at the top of this post. It is an Excel chart that I built directly from data on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics website to graphically illustrate why the rate is falling. If you notice that the slopes of the two lines seem to be correlated, it is because they are. Labor participation is the lowest it has been in over 30 years and the reported U3 number that the media is trumpeting as great news does not count people who have given up looking for work. April’s 8.1% unemployment number is for a workforce far smaller than in 2009. It has the combined whammy of population growth (some estimates say that we have to create over 100,000 new jobs a month just to offset the prospective workers entering the workforce each month) and people falling out of the workforce.
Where are these folks?
I don’t blame the folks for doing this, the majority really don’t have much of a choice. I blame the idiots in government and the Federal Reserve who think that they are smart enough to plan a national economy. Frederich Hayek famously said of these folks:
The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.
I said that the first chart will determine the winner of the election – and it will. This is a battle between letting the market loose and generating jobs or continuing to intervene and riding the downward spiral in labor participation. It is about whether people want real jobs or they will vote to protect their place at the government trough.
Only one of those models is sustainable, the other leads to economic and political collapse. It is a mathematical certainty that the taxes the government needs to prop up the welfare state will decline as employment declines. It is also a mathematical certainty that the government cannot borrow or confiscate enough money from the shrinking tax base to close the spending gap (that is why our national debt keeps growing).
This one is about the economy, folks.