There is a lot of chicanery going on right now.
Conventional wisdom was that Romney would get no bounce out of the Republican convention because he was just speaking to the “base” and Obama was to get one because he was smashing!…or that’s what the news coverage said, so the pollsters went in search of said “bounce” and managed to find one by over-sampling Democrats or under-sampling independents. I don’t doubt that Obama got a little bounce, but polls have shown that Democrat enthusiasm was/is much lower than that of Republicans and as poor as the Democratic abortionpalooza convention and Obama’s speech were, just like a Friday high school pep rally before the big game that always boosts the crowd, the convention had the same effect on the Donks.
In high school football, whether that enthusiasm continues into the next week of the season depends greatly on the outcome of the game that comes after the pep rally – and when Democrats woke up sober on Monday, the economy was still in the crapper, unemployment was still a national disgrace, bin Laden was actually worse off than he was four years ago and GM is still the walking dead and they realized that President Ladies Tee was still President Ladies Tee, things started to get back to normal.
Like I said yesterday, the polls won’t achieve any real accuracy until we get under a month before the actual election…and according to the analysis that follows, some never will be accurate.
Which poll was the most accurate in 2008? The San Francisco Chronicle says it was Rasmussen. Rasmussen gets hit for being “Republican leaning” but it appears that Scott Rasmussen’s group was spot on in 2008…calling it for Obama.
The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.
The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.
On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.
Here is the list –
1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)