Ahem…About Those Polls…

Drudge says:

There is a lot of chicanery going on right now.

Conventional wisdom was that Romney would get no bounce out of the Republican convention because he was just speaking to the “base” and Obama was to get one because he was smashing!…or that’s what the news coverage said, so the pollsters went in search of said “bounce” and managed to find one by over-sampling Democrats or under-sampling independents. I don’t doubt that Obama got a little bounce, but polls have shown that Democrat enthusiasm was/is much lower than that of Republicans and as poor as the Democratic abortionpalooza convention and Obama’s speech were, just like a Friday high school pep rally before the big game that always boosts the crowd, the convention had the same effect on the Donks.

In high school football, whether that enthusiasm continues into the next week of the season depends greatly on the outcome of the game that comes after the pep rally – and when Democrats woke up sober on Monday, the economy was still in the crapper, unemployment was still a national disgrace, bin Laden was actually worse off than he was four years ago and GM is still the walking dead and they realized that President Ladies Tee was still President Ladies Tee, things started to get back to normal.

Like I said yesterday, the polls won’t achieve any real accuracy until we get under a month before the actual election…and according to the analysis that follows, some never will be accurate.

Which poll was the most accurate in 2008? The San Francisco Chronicle says it was Rasmussen. Rasmussen gets hit for being “Republican leaning” but it appears that Scott Rasmussen’s group was spot on in 2008…calling it for Obama.

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.

Here is the list –

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

13. FOX (11/1-2)

14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

10 thoughts on “Ahem…About Those Polls…

    • I’m still thinking Reagan/Carter. The only real difference today is that Carter didn’t have the tools that the Obama administration has used to mask inflation and interest rates…otherwise it is a Carter economy.

      • The logic is sound Utah. And when they cannot hide this math, they threaten and pursue lawsuits.

        I await to see how the world responds to his boy Rahm handles this teacher’s union strike that is effecting 400+ thousand children … all for the sake of the very side effects the Republicans have long been warning folks about.

        The outcome could have an effect on the election.

  1. Guys. We are in the third quarter and (at best) Obama has a field goal advantage. The first debate is in October. If Obama has a lead after that I might start getting nervous.

  2. Here’s another site that looks at 2008, putting Rasmussen on top in two different ways: http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php

    Rasmussen apparently didn’t do nearly as well in 2010 midterm races–and even Rasmussen today states that Obama now has his “biggest lead over Romney among Likely Voters since March 17.” Still, national polls don’t mean much in a presidential race–what matters is how the electoral votes go. Romney has now given up on Pennsylvania and Michigan, once considered swing states, and Rasmussen now considers only seven states to be swing states.

    Some polls have Obama leading in Ohio and/or Florida, but even if Rasmussen’s electoral map is correct in calling both toss-ups, Obama needs to add only Florida–or just Ohio and any one of the other six toss-ups–to win the election. But you’re right–it’s still way early, so who knows? Things may get even worse for Romney. 😉 And Florida’s governor seems to be doing what he can to help out Obama: http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/09/rick-scott-rejects-health-care-money-disabled-kids-nursing-homes

      • Nice rhetoric, Utah–I’m sure that Romney/Ryan will use the same approach, probably unsuccessfully. Of course, “dumping” isn’t really accurate, since at least some of the 2 million who already have private insurance would apparently be going by choice, and all would be “dual beneficiaries” who qualify for both Medicare and Medicaid.

        And where, exactly, did you see any mention of anything resembling “vouchers”? I must have missed that, except on right-wing blogs like this one. By the way, Ryan’s plan calls for “discount coupons”–which might be called “vouchers”–for a fixed amount; the remainder of costs would have to paid by the patient. These alternative plans would be paid for by the state and federal governments (yes, that’s by us–but not, as you seem to be pretending, by the patients directly).

        The plans (not a single “plan”) approved by the Obama administration are mostly coming at the request of Republican governors. In addition, as your linked article points out: “To get approval, states must guarantee that both Medicare and Medicaid would save money. They must also agree to accept a fixed payment to cover all care for each patient. While rules say the private plans must cover all standard Medicare benefits, they also waive many Medicare rules and leave insurer selection to the states.”

        In other words, states-rights folks should love this plan. Those like me who don’t trust states like Florida to do what they claim, not so much. Either way, I can’t imagine it will change the mind of a single rational voter.

    • Just for the record … my peers remaining in Florida say that their patients are having tremendous anxiety over the direction Obamacare is taking (i.e., the shifting of Medicare funds out of Medicare resulting in more an more co-pays and denied claims).

      I cannot say with any confidence that “mother jones” has her finger on the pulse of the patient’s residing in Florida.

      • Augger, you may be right. You’ll notice that I didn’t claim that Obama is leading or will win there (though I do think that’s a strong possibility), just that some polls have him leading there and that IF he wins there–and IF the rest of Rasmussen’s map is correct–then Romney is toast. Those are big “if’s,” though, and as I also stated, it’s early. Much could change.

        • Um, I had to go show my tail at Mother Joneses site. But it’s so nice; I thought I’d post it twice. ::giggles:: Here we go:

          I’m getting a bit amused by these comments.

          Let’s see, Obamacare, er, I mean the Un- Affordable Healthcare Tax swipes $716 billion from Medicare to pay for itself. It also raises taxes to a sweet $836.3 billion to pay for itself, and you do not see the root of the problem?

          Healthcare workers and patients are scared sh*itless about Obamacare, as well they should be. Oh, there are 18 tax hikes in Obamacare; please take the time to peruse: http://blog.heritage.org/2012/
          Pay special attention to PCORI. (You’ll probably see why we’re headed in Greece’s direction.) Numbers don’t lie; they’re a bitch.

          If an administration cannot pass a budget in 3+ years, how the hell do you think they’re going to handle healthcare? Please name one government program that is solvent. You cannot, and I can prove it. Also please tell me why unemployment has stayed at 8% and higher from an adminstration that got sacked with a 5% unemployment rate. You folks really need to pull your heads outta the sand.

          I applaud Gov. Scott. Oh, I’m a native Floridian, and our state already has programs similar to his federal program.

          (SBJ, can you not see the forest for the trees? Watch Dusty’s video….. I can’t remember the name of the post….the story of my life.)

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