“6 Reasons to Panic”, Jonathan V. Last, The Weekly Standard, 17 October 2014

“We have arrived at a moment with our elite institutions where it is impossible to distinguish incompetence from willful misdirection.”             Jonathan V. Last

Read the entire article here.

. . . the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, . . . has migrated to both Europe and America, . . .

There are at least six reasons that a controlled, informed panic might be in order.

(1) Start with what we know, and don’t know, about the virus. Officials from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and other government agencies claim that contracting Ebola is relatively difficult because the virus is only transmittable by direct contact with bodily fluids from an infected person who has become symptomatic. Which means that, in theory, you can’t get Ebola by riding in the elevator with someone who is carrying the virus, because Ebola is not airborne.

This sounds reassuring. Except that it might not be true. There are four strains of the Ebola virus that have caused outbreaks in human populations. According to the New England Journal of Medicine, the current outbreak (known as Guinean EBOV, because it originated in Meliandou, Guinea, in late November 2013) is a separate clade “in a sister relationship with other known EBOV strains.” Meaning that this Ebola is related to, but genetically distinct from, previous known strains, and thus may have distinct mechanisms of transmission.

Not everyone is convinced that this Ebola isn’t airborne. Last month, the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy published an article arguing that the current Ebola has “unclear modes of transmission” and that “there is scientific and epidemiologic evidence that Ebola virus has the potential to be transmitted via infectious aerosol particles both near and at a distance from infected patients, which means that healthcare workers should be wearing respirators, not facemasks.”

And even if this Ebola isn’t airborne right now, it might become so in the future. Viruses mutate and evolve in the wild, and the population of infected Ebola carriers is now bigger than it has been at any point in history—meaning that the pool for potential mutations is larger than it has ever been. As Dr. Philip K. Russell, a virologist who oversaw Ebola research while heading the U.S. Army’s Medical Research and Development Command, explained to the Los Angeles Times last week,

I see the reasons to dampen down public fears. But scientifically, we’re in the middle of the first experiment of multiple, serial passages of Ebola virus in man. .  .  . God knows what this virus is going to look like. I don’t.

In August, Science magazine published a survey conducted by 58 medical professionals working in African epidemiology. They traced the origin and spread of the virus with remarkable precision—for instance, they discovered that it crossed the border from Guinea into Sierra Leone at the funeral of a “traditional healer” who had treated Ebola victims. In just the first six months of tracking the virus, the team identified more than 100 mutated forms of it.

Yet what’s really scary is how robust the already-established transmission mechanisms are. Have you ever wondered why Ebola protocols call for washing down infected surfaces with chlorine? Because the virus can survive for up to three weeks on a dry surface.

How robust is transmission? Look at the health care workers who have contracted it. When Nina Pham, the Dallas nurse who was part of the team caring for Liberian national Thomas Duncan, contracted Ebola, the CDC quickly blamed her for “breaching protocol.” But to the extent that we have effective protocols for shielding people from Ebola, they’re so complex that even trained professionals, who are keenly aware that their lives are on the line, can make mistakes.

By the by,

that Science article written by 58 medical professionals tracing the emergence of Ebola—5 of them died from Ebola before it was published.

(2) General infection rates are terrifying, too. In epidemiology, you measure the “R0,” or “reproduction number” of a virus; that is, how many new infections each infected person causes. When R0 is greater than 1, the virus is spreading through a population. When it’s below 1, the contamination is receding. In September the World Health Organization’s Ebola Response Team estimated the R0 to be at 1.71 in Guinea and 2.02 in Sierra Leone. Since then, it seems to have risen so that the average in West Africa is about 2.0. In September the WHO estimated that by October 20, there would be 3,000 total cases in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. As of October 7, the count was 8,376.

In other words, rather than catching up with Ebola, we’re falling further behind. And we’re likely to continue falling behind, because physical and human resources do not scale virally. In order to stop the spread of Ebola, the reproduction number needs to be more than halved from its current rate. Yet reducing the reproduction number only gets harder as the total number of cases increases, because each case requires resources—facilities, beds, doctors, nurses, decontamination, and secure burials—which are already lagging well behind need. The latest WHO projections suggest that by December 1 we are likely to see 10,000 new cases in West Africa per week, at which point the virus could begin spreading geographically within the continent as it nears the border with Ivory Coast.

Thus far, officials have insisted that it will be different in America. On September 30, CDC director Thomas Frieden confirmed the first case of Ebola in the United States, the aforementioned Thomas Duncan. Frieden then declared, “We will stop Ebola in its tracks in the U.S. .  .  . The bottom line here is that I have no doubt that we will control this importation, or this case of Ebola, so that it does not spread widely in this country.”

The word “widely” is key. Because despite the fact that Duncan was a lone man under scrupulous, first-world care, with the eyes of the entire nation on him, his R0 was 2, just like that of your average Liberian Ebola victim. One carrier; two infections. He passed the virus to nurse Pham and to another hospital worker, Amber Joy Vinson, who flew from Cleveland to Dallas with a low-grade fever before being diagnosed.

(3) Do you really want to be scared? What’s to stop a jihadist from going to Liberia, getting himself infected, and then flying to New York and riding the subway until he keels over? This is just the biological warfare version of a suicide bomb. Can you imagine the consequences if someone with Ebola vomited in a New York City subway car? A flight from Roberts International in Monrovia to JFK in New York is less than $2,000, meaning that the planning and infrastructure needed for such an attack is relatively trivial. …

(4) Let’s put aside the Ebola-as-weapon scenario—some things are too depressing to contemplate at length—and look at the range of scenarios for what we have in front of us, from best-case to worst-case. The epidemiological protocols for containing Ebola rest on four pillars: contact tracing, case isolation, safe burial, and effective public information. On October 14, the New York Times reported that in Liberia, with “only” 4,000 cases,“Schools have shut down, elections have been postponed, mining and logging companies have withdrawn, farmers have abandoned their fields.” Which means that the baseline for “best-case” is already awful.

In September, the CDC ran a series of models on the spread of the virus and came up with a best-case scenario in which, by January 2015, Liberia alone would have a cumulative 11,000 to 27,000 cases. That’s in a world where all of the aid and personnel gets where it needs to be, the resident population behaves rationally, and everything breaks their way. The worst-case scenario envisioned by the model is anywhere from 537,000 to 1,367,000 cases by January. Just in Liberia. With the fever still raging out of control.

By which point, all might well be lost. Anthony Banbury is coordinating the response from the United Nations, which, whatever its many shortcomings, is probably the ideal organization to take the lead on Ebola. Banbury’s view is chilling: “The WHO advises within 60 days we must ensure 70 percent of infected people are in a care facility and 70 percent of burials are done without causing further infection. .  .  . We either stop Ebola now or we face an entirely unprecedented situation for which we do not have a plan [emphasis added]”.

What’s terrifying about the worst-case scenario isn’t just the scale of human devastation and misery. It’s that the various state actors and the official health establishment have already been overwhelmed with infections in only the four-digit range. And if the four pillars—contact tracing, case isolation, safe burial, and effective public information—fail, no one seems to have even a theoretical plan for what to do.

(5) And by the way, things could get worse. All of those worst-case projections assume that the virus stays contained in a relatively small area of West Africa, which, with a million people infected, would be highly unlikely. What happens if and when the virus starts leaking out to other parts of the world?

Marine Corps General John F. Kelly talked about Ebola at the National Defense University two weeks ago and mused about what would happen if Ebola reached Haiti or Central America, which have relatively easy access to America. “If it breaks out, it’s literally ‘Katie bar the door,’ and there will be mass migration into the United States,” Kelly said. “They will run away from Ebola, or if they suspect they are infected, they will try to get to the United States for treatment.”

It isn’t crazy to see how a health crisis could beget all sorts of other crises, from humanitarian, to economic, to political, to existential. If you think about Ebola and mutation and aerosolization and R0 for too long, you start to get visions of Mad Max cruising the postapocalyptic landscape with Katniss Everdeen at his side.

(6)  The Obama administration refuses to countenance such a move, with the CDC’s Frieden flatly calling it “wrong”:

A travel ban is not the right answer. It’s simply not feasible to build a wall—virtual or real—around a community, city, or country. A travel ban would essentially quarantine the more than 22 million people that make up the combined populations of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea.

When a wildfire breaks out we don’t fence it off. We go in to extinguish it before one of the random sparks sets off another outbreak somewhere else.

We don’t want to isolate parts of the world, or people who aren’t sick, because that’s going to drive patients with Ebola underground, making it infinitely more difficult to address the outbreak. .  .  .

Importantly, isolating countries won’t keep Ebola contained and away from American shores. Paradoxically, it will increase the risk that Ebola will spread in those countries and to other countries, and that we will have more patients who develop Ebola in the U.S.

… Wildfires, in fact, are often fought by using controlled burns and trench digging to establish perimeters. And it’s a straw-man argument to say that a flight ban wouldn’t keep Ebola fully contained. No one says it would. But by definition, it would help slow the spread of the virus. If there had been a travel ban in place, Thomas Duncan would have likely reached the same sad fate—but without infecting two Americans and setting the virus loose in North America. And it’s difficult to follow the logic by which banning travel from infected countries would create more infections in the United States, as Frieden insists. This is not a paradox; it’s magical thinking.

Frieden’s entire argument is so strange—and so at odds with what other epidemiologists prescribe—that it can only be explained by one of two causes: catastrophic incompetence or a prior ideological commitment. The latter, in this case, might well be the larger issue of immigration.

Ebola has the potential to reshuffle American attitudes to immigration. If you agree to seal the borders to mitigate the risks from Ebola, you’re implicitly rejecting the “open borders” mindset and admitting that there are cases in which government has a duty to protect citizens from outsiders. Some people on the left admit to seeing this as the thin end of the wedge. Writing in the New Yorker, Michael Specter lamented, “Several politicians, like Governor Bobby Jindal, of Louisiana, have turned the epidemic into fodder for their campaign to halt immigration.” And that sort of thing just can’t be allowed.

What would happen in the event of an Ebola outbreak in Latin America? Then America would have to worry about masses of uninfected immigrants surging across the border—not to mention carriers of the virus. And if we had decided it was okay to cut off flights from West Africa, would we decide it was okay to try to seal the Southern border too? You can see how the entire immigration project might start to come apart.

So for now, the Obama administration will insist on keeping travel open between infected countries and the West and hope that they, and we, get lucky.

At a deeper level, the Ebola outbreak is a crisis not for Obama and his administration, but for elite institutions. Because once more they have been exposed as either corrupt, incompetent, or both. On September 16, as he was trying to downplay the threat posed by Ebola, President Obama insisted that “the chances of an Ebola outbreak here in the United States are extremely low.” Less then two weeks later, there was an Ebola outbreak in the United States.

The CDC’s Frieden—who is an Obama appointee—has been almost comically oafish. On September 30, -Frieden declared, “We’re stopping it in its tracks in this country.” On October 13, he said, “We’re concerned, and unfortunately would not be surprised if we did see additional cases.” The next day he admitted that the CDC hadn’t taken the first infection seriously enough: “I wish we had put a team like this on the ground the day the patient, the first patient, was diagnosed,” he said. “That might have prevented this infection. But we will do that from today onward with any case, anywhere in the U.S. .  .  . We could have sent a more robust hospital infection-control team and been more hands-on with the hospital from Day One.”

The day after that Frieden was asked during a press conference if you could contract Ebola by sitting next to someone on a bus—a question prompted by a statement from President Obama the week before, when he declared that you can’t get Ebola “through casual contact, like sitting next to someone on a bus.”

Frieden answered: “I think there are two different parts of that equation. The first is, if you’re a member of the traveling public and are healthy, should you be worried that you might have gotten it by sitting next to someone? And the answer is no. Second, if you are sick and you may have Ebola, should you get on a bus? And the answer to that is also no. You might become ill, you might have a problem that exposes someone around you.”

. . .

We have arrived at a moment with our elite institutions where it is impossible to distinguish incompetence from willful misdirection.

 

The WHO estimates death toll at 70%.  The black death which began in 1347 decimated Europe with only a 30% death rate.

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21 thoughts on ““6 Reasons to Panic”, Jonathan V. Last, The Weekly Standard, 17 October 2014

  1. No on 68! the required local infrastructure upgrades cost more than the likely school-fund taxes, and the only guaranteed money goes to the Rhode Island casino whose lawyers wrote the amendment. Haven’t we learned our lesson yet on the marijuana amendment? Only those who write them profit from them.

  2. Just thought I’d put this out there.

    We have all been told it is 21 days incubation for Ebola right ?

    I just looked at multiple stories mentioning the Timeline for Duncan, Pham and Vinson.

    Duncan took his Illegal self to the ER on Night of Sept 25th Discharged early AM Sept 26th. Readmitted on Sept 28th and Diagnosed on Sept 30th.

    Pham was Diagnosed on Oct 12 ( Presumably she was sick on Oct 11th.

    Vinson had a fever flying back Oct 13th and got sicker Oct 14th.

    21 Days from First Contact of the Illegal Duncan on Sept 25/26th is ….. October 16th ( Yesterday !!!)
    21 days from Duncan’s Second Hospital admission of Sept 28th is October 18th ( Tomorrow !!!).

    So according to the Experts these Nurses shouldn’t even be showing symptoms yet !!!! It was about 16 days for Pham and 18 days for Vinson counting Sept 28th as their infection date.

    It sounds like Nobody really knows HOW this Virus can be spread, nor how long it takes to show up in a person as an infection.

    • Don: I’ve been tracking much of the same lack of definitive information as you have & my conclusion is that our Federal government & the Golfer-in-Chief are again lying to the American people. Obola is an agile, constantly mutating virus that the U.S. Army Field Manual has warning about as having become aerosol or airborne in the past.

      Obama has brought it to rhe US, probably by design, & it has now been exposed in Texaa & Ohio & among 3,000 American military personnel who should not be on the African continent at all. Follow the plot of Tom Clancy’s EXECUTIVE ORDERS to see how it should be fought!!!

      Do we require further evidence of Obama’s goal of reducing America to a much weaker nation??? Depopulation is part of his larger strategy!!! CDE

      • I agree !!!

        To correct my own post……it is UP TO 21 days to incubate. According to people I know who work in this field, it is full blown anywhere from 4 days on up to 21 days. If after that the Gov’t assumes you are no longer infectious . Though I don’t think its known exactly how this thing is transmitted or if its mutated.

        To NOT TRUST the government is an act of self-preservation at this point !

        • Don & Joe: Unless I’ve heard wrong, the potential period during which an Ebola carrier & victim is potentially infectious has been raised to 42-days, the claim that only those showing symptoms are infectious has been dropped & the agility of the disease is finally being discussed. It turns out the symptoms are quite slippery & inconsistent, with few victims exhibiting all the listed symptoms.

          In short, gentlemen, it appears that the U.S. Federal government is either curiously under-informed our developing outbreak or is again lying to the American people. Maybe both??? Yes, likely both!!! CDE

            • Don: Exactly!!! Why would anyone send one of the world’s most effective fighting units to build isolation units & handle contaminated blood if something nefarious was not the real purpose??? We have See Bees & medical units all over our armed forces…who but a Marxist, Muslim sympathizer would put the 101st or the 82nd Airborne at risk for something they are not trained to do??? When is Congress going to start doing their jobs & stop the Jihadi-in-Chief from destroying & depopulating our nation???

              • Charles,

                Check out the Link I gave Joe below ! Book written in 1997 mentions Ebola from an African Man coming to Dallas…..the Gov’t saying don’t worry…..and finally a mention of Weaponized Bio-virus.

              • CDE,

                Stop looking to Congress for solutions. THEY ARE IN THIS 100% OF THE WAY! Our next LEGAL line of defense are the governors. It is time for the States to stand up and reject the feds.

                • Joe: In my view we need to pursue every possible option for heading off damage to the US that may take decades to get corrected. There are a growing number of real leaders in the GOP ranks in Congress, some excellent governors as well. Hopefully some will rise to the task!!! Obama is an increasingly sinister character & Soros has always been an amoral thug!!! Tough times ahead, my friend. CDE

                  • Yes, CDE, tough times, but looking to EITHER of these two Parties to be part of the solution is — IMHO — fool’s folly. They are one in the same, so even if good people get into one of these Parties, all it does is put them closer tot he seat of those who are in control and — thus — make them easier to control.

        • Joe, Read the description for this book published in 1997…paperback in 1999. Ebola, Dallas Weaponized Bio-weapon !!??

          Fits with your recent post on “Incompetence ” No ???

          • Don,

            Yes it does. Also, I have been aware of the attempts to ‘weaponize’ Ebola for a while. They have done similar work with anthrax, as well. The problem they encountered with Ebola is it is TOO lethal. It tends to burn itself out too quickly as a weapon of DESTRUCTION! However, if you are after a weapon to create panic and provide an excuse to declare an emergency and suspend the Constitution….

            • So, what’s the probability that someone would coincidentally write a book in 1997 ( Pre-Patriot Act ) that had as it’s plot premise :

              (1) Ebola
              (2) Coming to Dallas
              (3) From an Infected African Man
              (4) The government stepping all over itself to tell people not to worry
              (5) Weaponization of the virus ( ie DIFFERENT transmission and longer duration history than all previous out breaks)
              Basically the entire scenario we see today ?
              The Patriot Act was so obviously waiting in a Drawer for the opportune time to be implemented.

              • Don,

                If you will go back and look, you will find there is a startling connection between books and movie and future realities. I used to think they were coincidences — until I learned that ‘1984’ and ‘Brave New World’ were not warnings of what could happen, but boasts of what was going to happen — and how (btw: there are two more books that have come true). But now, now I think these things are the way those few who care about what is right try to warn people. I could be wrong and probably am, but I just want to believe that there are some left who are trying to fight the evil that now controls this nation.

                • I believe as you say that there are Those who try to Warn us against the Evil.

                  Even some who are deeply connected to the halls of power. JFK comes to mind as well.

  3. Has anyone else noticed the timing of this EBola thing? We are JUST coming into the cold and flue season. What are the early symptoms of a cold or the flue?

    Anyone think this is a coincidence?

  4. Now, if I wanted people to accept Martial law, hell, even clamor for it. Could I do better than have a virus on the lose that requires a large scale quarantine?
    Just spit ballin here, 😦

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