Not an anti-Trump post, so let’s get that out of the way right up front.
But I do think Trump is going to lose.
Not because he is any of the stuff he is or is presumed to be but because as much as people claim they want change, I doubt they will actually vote for it. When the voted for Obama’s brand of “hope and change” they knew they were actually voting for more of the same – more government, more programs and more taxes (they just thought the taxes would be paid by the mysterious “others”).
I didn’t say I wanted him to lose and this doesn’t mean I support Hillary but I was trying to read the tea leaves left over from McCain’s win in the Arizona GOP primary yesterday and the results were interesting. Not that I didn’t expect him to win, I just didn’t expect to see such a margin after the polls basically had them neck and neck – even the last polls taken 24 hours out.
If the polls are to be believed at all, the margin of victory means that even though people said they were voting one way, when the curtain was drawn in the voting booth, they couldn’t bring themselves to pull the lever for McCain’s opponent, Kelli Ward.
I think John McCain’s win and the margin by which he won over Dr. Kelli Ward, the massive polling advantage he has over U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) for the general election and the fact that Trump is only up 2 in the RCP average for Arizona (in a state where stemming illegal immigration should be a total win) might indicate that people committed to real change are greatly outnumbered by those who favor no change – or if they have to change, they will vote of variations on the same theme and will not vote for an overhaul.
If this is true, it is a huge (yuge) advantage for the candidate of the party of status quo government. Trump says “why not” take a chance, Clinton’s message is “why try.” The latter is purported to be safer – many people think you are better with the devil you know than the devil you don’t.
The high unfavorability numbers of both candidates may also yield a low turnout election – which will favor the candidate with the best GOTV effort, an effort where Trump sorely lags behind Clinton – especially in battleground states.
But I could be wrong. It has happened before…if you ask my wife, she would say “frequently.”