Living With Risk

Let us assume that there exists a city with an area that is well-known by its mayor to be dangerously crime ridden, but the mayor forbids telling people about it. He does so because if people knew, they would avoid it – and that wouldn’t be fair because avoiding it is racist, classist or some other social justice construct and we just can’t have that. He would rather just have everyone believe his city is safe in every area than have people manage their risk by avoiding the most dangerous area.

Sound reasonable?

Not to me – and I’ll bet it doesn’t sound reasonable to most of you either. If we know where danger exists, the easiest way to manage it is to avoid going there if at all possible.

But in one form or another, that is where we are with the Covid-19 panic.

Americans are historically ignorant where statistics are concerned. Maybe it is that people are not interested in math or just simply can’t reason, but numbers scare a lot of people and because they also are willing to uncritically accept numbers they don’t really understand, that confirm their biases, come from “authorities” or any combination of the aforementioned, as a nation, we have had the wool pulled over our eyes.

I want to ask a rhetorical question – if I have cancer and I enter into a treatment that destroys my immune system in an effort to kill the cancer and I contract a simple infection that is common, yet the infection kills me, did the cancer, the treatment, or the infection kill me?

The CDC says it was the cancer. It considers the treatment and the infection contributing factors, but the end result of my death will be logged as whatever form of cancer I have.

My curiosity was piqued when I started researching how many Covid-19 deaths occurred without some other pre-existing co-morbidity. Several months ago, the CDC reported that only 6% of all Covid-19 related deaths were attributed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus alone. Of course, that doesn’t mean that this virus did not contribute in some way to the other 94% of deaths, just that 6% had no other identified underlying conditions.

Right now, the gross data for the C-19 pandemic indicates that death rates are about 1 per 1000 population – but are all those deaths truly attributable solely to the virus?

The data seems to indicate it isn’t. If you adjust for the comorbidities, the rate drops to 1 death per 16,667 population, roughly equivalent to the number of people who die from falling each year (around 20,000 per year according to the NIH).

There is no doubt that the virus can kill, especially those people who have underlying respiratory conditions like COPD or some sort of immunodeficiency. For the record, COPD kills 1 out of every 2067 people (per the CDC, about 160,000 per year).

It is also important to note that malpractice kills an estimated 250,000 to 300,000 people per year, so you are about as likely to know someone who was killed by a doctor’s bad decision as you are who died of complications due to Covid-19.

The pandemic hysterics will claim that my questioning make me a Covid denier – but that isn’t true. My point is not to say that Covid-19 isn’t dangerous, it isn’t a problem or that it doesn’t exist. It is, it is and it does – but it is a risk that can be defined and managed successfully without destroying people and their standard of living.

You have to ask yourself why we have reacted to this pandemic differently than we have other recent flu pandemics – because the various strains of the flu also exacerbate the danger from comorbidities. If you extend the pseudo-logic used in this pandemic to the annual flu, to protect every person, we would be in a permanent state of lockdown.

We need better data than just Saint Anthony of Fauci saying “Wear the mask or you will die, you ignorant peasant.” We need better leadership than our authorities dictating that we need to cower behind our couches surrounded by a fog of Lysol spray.

We need to know the real risk. If we had a real free press rather than a PR arm for a particular ideology, the chances the public would get better data would be significantly increased – but alas, we don’t. They are engaged in increasing chaos and panic because they understand chaos and panic benefits their benefactors.
The fact is people manage risk every time they take a breath – because living life consists of the assumption and mitigation of risk. We need to know that if we are otherwise healthy, have no underlying conditions and are not over the age of 65, the risk of contracting the virus is small and dying from C-19 alone is infinitesimally small.

We manage risk every day. We accept some, we avoid others. We climb into our cars knowing their are changing road conditions and idiots on the road with us – but we also know that our own skills and the safety equipment in our vehicles are prophylactic measures against Nature and Nature’s Idiots. We don’t do dumb crap on the top of a ladder without knowing that the risk is a fall with injury or even death. Medical professionals in cancer wards and cancer patients know the risk of infection and manage it. We know the danger of medical malpractice and manage it.

But none of the aforementioned stops us from living our lives the way our ruling class is demanding we do with this “pandemic”.

That must change.

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