Colorado Boys

The other day I was visiting my favourite wolf, sweet Pino’s site: http://tarheelred.com/  The discussion was on polls and I made the following comment:

I say, how about these boys?

“Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/22/university-of-colorado-pr_n_1822933.html

They’ve got an accurate track record since 1980……..oh, and they predict a Romney win.

Pino then informed me that he had written a post on these boys. I was curious to see if any of my sweet angel babies at the RNL had…couldn’t find one, so I thought it would be nice to post sweet Pino’s post.

Dewey Defeats Truman: Obama Style

Posted on September 18, 2012 by Pino| 15 Comments

In 1948 the Chicago Tribune printed a headline announcing that Dewey had defeated Truman. History shows, of course, that Truman was victorious. I resonate with this feeling as we enter the final stretches of the 2012 election. And to rely even more on historical anecdote, I’ll call upon the old Nixon rag, “I can’t believe he won. No one I know voted for him.”

This is where I find myself now. I’m surrounded by everyone that thinks Obama will win. But I know only a few people who will vote for him.

                       

Will Obama Win The Election

Everyone I know feels that Obama is going to win the election this fall. This includes the folks I talk to that are Obama supporters as well as those who are Romney supporters. Obama is going to win.

But…..very few people I know are going to vote for Obama. And this includes a significant number of people who voted for the President last election.

Who Will Win The States

Obviously the election will come down to individual states and who will win the electoral votes. And that’s where it gets interesting. National polls showing such and such ahead are fun but in the end, not very useful. A more accurate view of who is going to win comes down to who wins each state.

And it i s possible to predict who wins each state:

A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

Based on the individual state economies, Obama loses to Romney. Obama isn’t able to overcome the unemployment levels that have dominated the experience of voters in states all over the nation.

Will Obama win? I continue to think so. However, “no one I know is going to vote for him.”

9 thoughts on “Colorado Boys

  1. Do NOT dismiss the possibility that they are intentionally creating this notion that Obama will win big so that no one will question the result if they decide to just steal the election.

    And do NOT dismiss the possibility that they can’t steal it or wouldn’t — they can and they would. Remember, election controversy is part of the Soros formula for overthrowing nations, and he has openly stated that he is at work against America. You NEVER ignore such an open threat, you ALWAYS HONOR THE THREAT — ALWAYS!

    • Oh, for cryin out loud, B.! I’m just showin their proven formula. I don’t doubt that there will be some in the Democratic Party that commit voter fraud. I just don’t think that the nation will succumb this time round.

      • Kells,

        I’m worried that the formula doesn’t apply anymore because the game has changed. If they sense that this election is all-or-nothing, then everything we’ve come to expect from their past behavior will no longer apply.

  2. I think they figure if they can get enough anti-OWEbozo people to believe that the election is essentially over and Mitt can’t win, that they will get a lot of them to stay home and not bother voting. I sure hope this doesn’t happen.

    • I’m betting on my Mississippi and Colorado boys. I feel a song comin on: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xWS3h-apmk

      Had to check that link. I’m giggling because I posted a comment at daddy’s site and left the wrong link! It was very funny, actually, because I was on my high horse, and ended my comment with a link, which I then punctuated with an “Uh-huh.” I’m going to start crying laughing again, because I sent daddy a love song link! Uh-huh, indeed!

  3. I think they are doing everything they can to get OWEbozo re-elected because if Mitt wins and then straightens out this mess that OWEbozo has sponsored, it will be hard to get another socialist into the Oval office.

  4. Kells, you’ll notice that this Huffpo story is now more than a month old–and that the profs themselves note that “the data used was taken five months before the November election,” and that they “plan to update it with more current data come September.” Five-month-old data (in other words, collected in May or early June, perhaps before Romney was even officially the nominee) in an election is relatively meaningless.

    Since September ends today, I hope they do the follow-up–if so, those numbers will be much more meaningful. And if the numbers then put Obama in front, the profs’ chances of them being able to say in 2016 that they have “correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980” will be much enhanced–and in mid-2016, everyone who is touting their previous “perfection” will forget what they said in mid-2012 before they “got it right.”

    And maybe paranoids like Joe will stop acting as if the only way Obama can win is through a stolen election. But I doubt it; I suspect they’re too far gone, just like their paranoid counterparts on the left.

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